The New Year has changed little in Poland’s national mood. While the Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index increased somewhat, it’s still too soon to speak of any clear-cut reversal of the downward trend that began back in November 2011. The Index remains in the doldrums at 77 points, though it recorded a month-on-month change of +1 point.
The least growth was observed in the Economic Climate Index (+0.6 pts. in relation to the previous month). The Current Index – which measures consumer assessment of the current situation in the national economy as well as in their own households – gained 2 pts. (reaching the level of 65 pts.).
The Christmas holidays did not improve the mood in Poland. The Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index (Polish acronym: WOK), which had tumbled in November, remained in the doldrums in December at 76 points.
While the month-on-month change was slight (-1 pt.), it is clear that the pessimistic mood has solidi-fied (the upward trend that had spanned half the year up to November, with a single slip in August, has collapsed). The current Consumer Confidence Index is now at its lowest level since April 2009.
Polish consumers definitely grew more pessimistic in November. The Consumer Confidence Index (Polish acronym: WOK) tumbled to 77 points. The month-on-month change was substantial, exceeding 11 pts.
The long-term growth trend that had spanned the previous half year (except for a slight slip in Au-gust), has currently been reversed. The WOK gave up all the gains it had made since March, when it bottomed out at its lowest level over the last two years. The collapse of the recent positive trend, to-gether with experts in the media predicting an economic slowdown and signals from the government about the necessity of taking cost-cutting measures could all contribute to further declines in consumer outlook in the near future.
After the slight decline in consumer mood recorded in August, September brought a moderate improvement: the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) moved up 1.4 points to 86.4. This increase may be a bit surprising considering the media gloom and doom about another recession around the corner – all the more so in that the CCI improvement was mainly driven by better assessments of the country’s economic condition. Evidently, Poles are not falling into a panic.
The Economic Climate Index noted a 2.2 point jump to 74.6 pts. This can be attributed primarily to improved views of the country’s economic performance over the last 12 months. The number of people who said the economy had deteriorated declined in relation to the number who said it had remained the same.
The Willingness to Buy Index improved only slightly, by 0.8 pts to 94.3.
August brought a decline in consumer mood: the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slipped to 85.03 points. This month-on-month change is slight, as it did not exceed 1 pt., though it put an end to the upward trend that had lasted over the previous four consecutive months. The break in the positive trend together with experts forecasting an economic slowdown could lead to further declines in the Index in coming months.
A factor contributing to the downturn in the CCI were consumers’ worsening assessments of the Economic Climate, as this index fell 1.2 pts to 72.5. The Willingness to Buy index nudged down-ward a half point, to 93.4. These declines, in turn, can mainly be attributed to greater pessimism about the current situation, on the level of the national economy as well as the respondents’ own households (the Current Index dropped 2 pts.).
According to the Consumer Confidence Index as measured by Ipsos, the mood of Polish consumers improved yet again in July, if only slightly. The current upward trend has now lasted 4 successive months. In July the Index reached 84.8 points, for a month-on-month change of plus one point.
The component metric that recorded the relatively largest gain was the Economic Climate Index, which increased by 1.7 pts. and now stands at 72 pts. Fewer people than in June feel that the country’s economic situation has deteriorated over the last year (down 5 percentage points). Willingness to Buy has remained practically unchanged (+0.5 pts), edging up to 93.9 pts. At the same time, the percentage of people who expect to save some money over the coming year increased.
June brought a slight improvement in consumer mood. After the previous long-lasting downward trend, it was the third month in a row when the Consumer Optimism Index (WOK) as measured by Ipsos increased
While the growth was not great– 1 point – it brought the Index up to 84.8 pts. Because the change is not substantial, it can be said that consumer optimism has remained steady for the past two months in Poland.
Polish consumers grew more optimistic in May. After the sharp downturn back in March, this is the second month of improvement in a row. The Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index reached 83.5 points (+4 pts.). While it has not yet regained the ground it lost in March, it is only 3 points below the highest point it reached in 2011.
The Economic Climate Index posted a 7-point gain and currently stands at 70.7. A distinctly greater number of Poles believe that our country’s economy is moving in the right direction (an increase from 18% to 25%). Nevertheless, 64% of Poles still feel that the situation will get worse. Faith in the country’s economic situation continues to inch upward, as a slightly higher percentage of respondents than the month before stated that it would improve or at least not get any worse.
Following the largest month-on-month decline in consumer confidence in the last two years, April brought good news: the Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index rose 3 points to 79.1. Nevertheless, this is still 8 points lower than in February and it’s still too early to declare this the end of the long-term downward trend.
There was less negative news for our economy in April. The government sought to regain the initiative in this area by announcing its intention to pass the budget for 2012 ahead of time, which would be an unprecedented event.
March brought a significant worsening in consumer mood. The Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recorded a 10-point decline and now stands at 76.2 pts. This is the sharpest month-on-month drop in consumer confidence in the last two years.
The current downward trend in consumer confidence began in June 2010. Sharp declines were noted in both components of the CCI – Economic Climate (-15.5 pts.) and Willingness to Buy (-7.14 pts.).
