A distinct slump in consumer moods

This month’s decline is above all due to a clear fall in the Economic Climate index (falling 10.1 points to 80.7), one of the components of the CCI. The announcement that VAT rates will be raised in the near future was accompanied by growing concern about the future of the Polish economy. The share of consumers expecting the country’s economic situation to deteriorate over the coming twelve months has grown by 7 percentage points to 32%.

Because of the VAT changes consumers are also worried about prices rising faster than they have been. The percentage expressing such concern has almost doubled, rising from 19% to 37%. In addition over 40% of the Polish population are worried about jobless figures growing over the next 12 months (an increase of 10 percentage points). For comparison, only 11% expect the level of unemployment to fall during this period.

Despite worries about the country’s economy and growing unemployment, as well as the slight growth in concern about the future financial situation of households, the anticipated rise in prices means that the period before the higher VAT rates come into force is more attractive for the purchase of durables. The Willingness to Buy index has practically remained steady at the balance point of 100 points, meaning that the shares of pessimists and optimists (in regard to buying durables in the current period) balance each other out. Among those intending to buy such products in the near future there is less interest in taking a bank loan to finance the purchase (a drop of 9 percentage points to 12%), while the share of those preferring to buy via hire purchase has risen by 15 percentage points to 36%.

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The CCI Consumer Confidence Index may take a value of from 0 to 200 points. The latest survey is based on the findings of a survey conducted between 6 - 16 August 2010 on a representative random-quota sample of 1000 Poles aged 15 and above.