Further improvement in moods in February

The increases observed since last April have brought the CCI back to the level from the end of 2008, after which time there was a big drop in consumer moods related to the worldwide crisis. In January 2009 the CCI fell by 11 points, and exactly a year ago it dropped by as much as 13 points to 71.4, the largest month-on-month decline in the CCI’s history (measured since 1991).

The main driver behind the current improvement is an increase in confidence in the Polish economy: ratings for the economic climate have risen by 8 points to 84.6. A growing number of Poles look positively at the changes in the economic situation in the country over the past year, and also count more often on an improvement in the situation in the future. In addition, the past month has seen a clear decline in worries about rising unemployment (a drop from 43 to 37%), which distinctly goes against the data registered by GUS (Central Statistical Office), according to which January 2010 was yet another month seeing a rise in the number of unemployed. As one can see, the consumer’s point of view is governed by its own laws, and is based on different information than that recorded officially, which tends rather to show the end effect of processes involving the laying off of employees.

Willingness to buy remained almost unchanged in February, at 98.7 points, which coupled with an objective fall in retail sales testifies positively to the condition of Polish consumers. Thus the drop in sales was not a result of worsening moods, but could have been caused by external factors, e.g. the weather.

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The CCI Consumer Confidence Index can take a value of from 0 to 200 points. The latest survey is based on the findings of a survey conducted between 4 and 11 February 2010 on a representative random-quota sample of 1012 Poles aged 15 and above.