Consumer optimism rose prior to the flooding

The actual scale of the growth in May is not high, and as such one may presume that the trend of improving consumer moods is gradually slowing down.

The driver behind the latest improvement is the continuously growing faith in the future of Poland’s economy, with the percentage of pessimists declining. This month there was a drop of 7 percentage points in consumers worried about the country’s economic situation worsening over the next 12 months. Currently 23% of consumers are worried about the situation in Poland deteriorating, which is the lowest percentage since September 2008. The majority of Poles (58%) believe that the situation here will remain unchanged; this group has grown the most since April – by 6 percentage points. On the other hand ratings for the country’s current economic situation compared to a year ago remained practically unchanged since April, although still 36% of consumers believe the situation has worsened, while 15% are of the opposite opinion.

Thanks to such ratings for the current and expected situation in the country’s economy, the Economic Climate Index rose to a level of 87.6 points (a rise of 3.6 points on April’s level).

Willingness to buy, calculated on the basis of Poles’ ratings for the current and future financial condition of their households and their attitude towards the purchase of durables, reached a level of 102.8 points. Thus the advantage the optimists held over the pessimists noted in April has grown by 1.9 points. This derives from the further improvement in ratings for households’ financial situation compared to last year.

When interpreting the current CCI value one must bear in mind that the survey was completed precisely when the first information reports about the flooding appeared in the media; its impact on consumer attitudes will most probably only become evident in the findings of the June survey.

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The CCI Consumer Confidence Index may take a value of from 0 to 200 points. The latest survey is based on the findings of a survey conducted between 6 - 10 May 2010 on a representative random-quota sample of 1013 Poles aged 15 and above.